When Trump won the 2016 Election in one of the biggest upsets since Truman defeated Dewey, there was an immediate rush to explain the victory as most conventional wisdom predicted a Clinton victory. Now almost 10 years after the 2016 election the pundits and intellectuals have made three claims:
- Trump is a unique figure in American history which is why nobody could have predicted him
- Voters were sick of moderate non ideological candidates
- Trump started a unique new right wing movement akin to how Reagan started a Neoconseravtive movement
All three claims face flaws from a historical perspective and a political science perspective. The first claim is based on the idea that Trump is a unique populist celebrity figure. This is untrue as America has had celebrity politicians pre 2016 and his style of politics is nothing new. One of the best examples of this was Jim Trafficant. Jim Traficant was a controversial member of the United States House from 1985 to 2002. He was known for crude rants and wearing flamboyant outfits. He was one of the first celebrity politicians, as he, like Trump, was swarmed by constant media and press due to his informal style and catch phrases. Jim Trafficant through this became one of the first celebrity politicians. For example in 1983 he chose to represent himself when he was in court for federal charges earning him more media attention and he for being able to produce successful soundbites for the media like his catch phrase “beam me up”
By campaign standards Trump 2016 campaign was no amazing logistical effort. There were no major grassroots campaigns to help funnel donations. Social media was limited to twitter rants unlike his 2024 campaign. The Trump campaign instead had something that ended up being more significant, that was constant media and press. With every statement Trump made he got more soundbites and media which obviously ended up benefiting him as all other candidates in the primary were squeezed of any campaign oxygen as the 2016 GOP primary ended becoming about soundbites and who had sounded the best on TV. Trump did not win the 2016 primary because of a deep ideological reason but instead because of his celebrity status. His win was very similar to Arnold Schwarzenegger’s victory in the 2003 California governor election. Where he was running purely on celebrity status and won over the more ideological candidates. In the full campaign Trump received the most positive coverage.
The second claim is the easiest to disapprove as Trump according to Gallup polling people thought Trump was the most moderate Republican since Gallup has polled it since 1992. 47 percent of voters thought he was conservative the lowest number out of Republican candidates since 1992 and 19 percent of voters thought he was Liberal. While Hillary Clinton was viewed as the more ideological and less moderate candidate as 58 percent described her as a Liberal. While the general consensus is that John McCain and Mitt Romney were the last breath of the moderate establishment, Republican party voters clearly did not think so and thought Trump was the most moderate Republican. This is a situation where the pundits are imposing their own point of view on the voters.
For the third claim many conservative pundits like to think Trump as the unique bringer of a new conservative movement akin to Ronald Reagan. This simply is not true as we have seen zero ideological core within the “MAGA movement”. The most obvious example is when Trump and MAGA influencers during the 2024 cycle embraced an isolationist ideology that suggested America should isolate itself from not just war but its own allies. Trump has been one of the most interventionist presidents in the last 50 years with the War with Iran and other military strikes. While the United States has distanced itself from Europe it has deepened ties with Saudi Arabia and the new right wing government of Latin America. If “MAGA” was a pure movement with ideological basis you’d expect a lot of upheaval and unpopularity with the base of the party, instead the base overwhelmingly approves of the Iran war and more broadly Trump. According to the latest NYT/Sienna “The vast majority of Republicans, 82 percent, still approve of his job performance and his signature policies, including the Iran war and tariffs.”
Trump is a figure that has dominated United States politics since his first presidential announcement yet the political pundits gap of understanding of him does show an important blindspot with political pundits. Pundits like to think of political figures as being a part of political movements. You hear this all the time with a candidate maybe being described as a part of the evangelical movement or a labor movement. The problem with this is voters don’t think in these overly academic ways relating to why they choose a candidate. This tendency has severely hurt political punditry as the obsession with putting politicians into clean ideological boxes ignores the voters that elect them.