BRICS, an economic alliance between Brazil, Russia, India, China, and most recently South Africa, has been steadily growing in power and reach over the last few years. Outside of being large yet undeveloped economies, the members of BRICS seem to have little in common. India and China are arguably the closest, both being massive Asian nation-states whose primary export is cheap labor, primarily for the U.S., and whose consumer classes are growing, along with their wealth disparities and labor issues. Both have a population of over 1 billion people, but in terms of age demographics, they could not be more different. In China, about 1 ⁄ 3 of all people are over the age of 65, while in India, over ⅓ are 14 or younger. India’s economy is still growing, though its massive unemployment rate puts a strain on social safety nets, while China is reaching a violent end to its astronomical economic growth.
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Brazil is similarly one of the largest countries by population but otherwise looks odd standing next to the others. Russia, India, and China are all considered superpowers or emerging superpowers, while Brazil is smaller but growing quickly and becoming one of the leading forces in South America, a vital and emerging market. This is likely the main reason why Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neil initially coined the term in 2001 He predicted that these four economies would be the fastest-growing and come to dominate the global economy by 2050.
South Africa and Russia are another odd couple due to more current reasons. They have enjoyed positive diplomatic relations for many years, but Putin, the fascist leader of the Russian government, had to attend the BRICS summit over Zoom because he was indicted by the International Criminal Court for the kidnapping of children during the Ukraine war. South Africa is a signatory of the ICC, so it would be legally obligated to arrest him. They lobbied for months to convince Putin to stay home, lest find themselves in a diplomatic double-bind, caught between their obligation to the ICC and their alliance with Russia.
At that very summit, Russia and China pushed to allow more members into BRICS, which may allow China and Russia to expand their global influence and collectively challenge the US and or the European Union for their relative stronghold on economic development, skilled personnel, international finance, and global currency. At the 2023 BRICS summit, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa asked Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates to join the collective. 67 nations attended the summit in total.
These economies see themselves in opposition to the US, a West-dominated economic order that has stood arguably since the end of the Second World War with the unprecedented economic surge in US productivity caused by the destruction of European and Asian manufacturing. The US is still on a sharply upward economic trajectory, despite its issues with wealth inequality, civil instability, international relations, and the rapid shrinking of its prominence and seeming immunity to economic consequences in the last thirty years. Since the fall of the USSR, no other nation has approached the US in raw political and military power. All challengers have been partially or fully crushed. Uncle Sam will take care of you, as long as you’re happy serving him.
BRICS isn’t. Their current members are all in the G20 summit of world economies, but they have become dissatisfied with playing second fiddle to the developed world. In addition to inviting new members and solidifying their alliances, BRICS has proposed a new currency, which they called r5. For years, the global economy has run on the US dollar. It’s so ubiquitous even criminals use it when they’re not busy with Bitcoin. Many economies have publicly expressed concern that US interests may thus be disproportionately represented because of its influence on the simple medium in which international finance and business are done.
The currency, which is still in its intellectual infancy and may be nothing more than an attempt to raise eyebrows or show unity, would not have to replace any existing physical currency and may in fact exist only as a digital currency. Similarly, no bank is likely to be established, being unnecessary and impractical.
If BRICS succeeds in its ambitions and grows in economic power beyond the US and the other highly developed economies, the balance of power will shift irrevocably along with the nature of global politics. The G7, the most prestigious and powerful economic summit in the world, consists solely of liberal democracies with representative democracies, along with the EU as an honorary member. Russia was expelled in 2014. In the near future, the most powerful economies may no longer be the wealthiest per person, with highly centralized state power, sharp class disparities, and weaker or nonexistent systems of democracy.
Whether they will actually succeed remains unknown. China is currently experiencing an economic crisis, which some call the most severe since the Cultural Revolution. India’s economy, in contrast, is doing quite well, though many of its young people are unemployed. Russia is suffering from its protracted, destructive involvement in the Ukraine War, which is depleting many of its resources with few to no returns. Sanctions and civil unrest have only exacerbated the issue. Brazil was ravaged by COVID due to its failure in the public health system and in communication about proper safety information but has largely bounced back. South Africa also struggled to gain access to vaccination but is currently doing well. Meanwhile, the US is still growing, despite its many domestic troubles. The job market is strong, and unemployment is low, though there are about two empty jobs per unemployed person. The dollar remains an enduring and reliable currency, internally and externally. The US economies remain hale and hearty, despite the quarantine and economic doomsaying, but the BRICS economies are poised to challenge its hegemony in the near, with unpredictable consequences.
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